The article explores Europe’s diminishing geopolitical influence amid the second Trump administration, proposing three bold strategies for Europe to regain its standing. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateral approach, particularly regarding discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, highlights Europe’s reduced role in global affairs. To counter this trend, the article recommends unconventional strategies that may seem extreme but are necessary to prevent further marginalisation. These strategies include reconsidering Europe’s position within NATO, engaging with Russia, and forming strategic alliances with China, allowing Europe to assert itself independently on the world stage.
Firstly, the suggestion to threaten a NATO exit highlights the potential leverage Europe could achieve by increasing its defence budget to 5% of its GDP. Such a move would position Europe as a less dependent entity on American military power, potentially commanding greater respect from the Trump administration. The article argues that continued NATO participation without response to U.S. provocations undermines Europe’s assertiveness. By showing a credible intention to operate independently, Europe might compel U.S. leaders like Vice President J.D. Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to engage with Europe more respectfully.
The second strategy involves a strategic realignment with Russia, moving away from traditional views of Russia as a primary threat. The piece suggests establishing a grand bargain that respects current borders and finds a compromise over Ukraine. It posits that Europe’s fears regarding Russia might be overstated compared to threats from China and views Russia as a declining power. By recalibrating relations with Russia, Europe could reduce its dependence on an unpredictable U.S., forming new alliances that align with its interests rather than remaining subservient.
Finally, the article proposes cultivating a strategic partnership with China, particularly concerning Africa’s demographic surge’s implications for Europe. Europe’s population challenges linked to African migration pressures could be mitigated by embracing China’s African investments, often criticised by European powers. Aligning with China on Africa’s development could stabilise the region, addressing Europe’s long-term geopolitical concerns and shifting away from solely following American geopolitical interests, which have not provided expected benefits. Ultimately, the article advocates for Europe to prioritise its strategic interests, emulating the self-serving characteristics of Trump’s America to bolster its geopolitical influence.
