Reflections (update on 29 December 2024)
During the Christmas break, as I sifted through old notes and documents, I stumbled upon the ‘Ana Gabel’ publication. It triggered me to compare changes in diplomacy between 2006 and 2024 bellow…
In the last 18 years, did we have more changes or continuity in diplomacy? What do you think will remain of core diplomacy by 2042? Any predictions?
| Activity | 2006 | 2024 | Key changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knowledge management | Basic digital archives, manual indexing, siloed databases | AI-powered knowledge bases, semantic search, automated categorization | Reducing knowledge/information assymetry between big and small states; Reducing ‘diplomatic ignorance’ (lack of info/knowledge) with impact on diplomatic tactis: ‘face saving’, use of ambugitieis, non-papers tactics. |
| Secure communication | Basic encrypted email, perimeter defense | End-to-end encrypted messaging, secure cloud platforms, advanced threat detection | Much higher exposure of diplomats to sophisticated diplomatic threats |
| Collaborative document drafting | Basic word processors with track changes, sequential editing | Real-time collaboration platforms, AI-assisted drafting, multi-language support | Possibility to trace if and to what extend specific proposals are reflected in the final draft of report, convention, or other diplomatic documents |
| Public diplomacy | Static websites and basic blogs | Social media strategies, digital campaigns, virtual reality diplomacy | Much higher exposure of diplomats to social media campaigns; Higher risk of diplomatic incidents around mis/disinformation |
| Information and data analysis | Manual analysis of diplomatic communications, basic keywrod search and simple database queries | AI-powered analytics, sentiment analysis, pattern recognition, predictive modeling, relationship mapping | AI empowerment for trend analysis, anticipation and contextualisaiton of data; |
| Reporting and analysis | Report writing using word processes with basic data visualization | AI-assisted drafting, automated data visualization, predictive analytics | Automation of significant part of all aspects of reporting (towards capital, to the UN and treaty bodies) with major impact on staff, competencies and organisation of diplomatic systems. |
| Virtual representation and presence | Basic video calls, simple websites | ‘Zoom diplomacy’, Virtual embassies, digital diplomatic platforms, immersive technologies, | Post-Covid consolidate realistic use of online platforms. Diplomatic representation remains ‘human activity’. A possible uses may emerge in crisis situations |
| Multi-stakeholder engagement | Limited online engagement, one-to-many communication | Digital platforms for global diplomatic engagement, real-time collaboration | Technology is available for highly inclusive diplomacy; inclusivity level will depend on political decisions. |
Original text (23 August 2006)
In the story, Ana has to deal with an environmental emergency. After an accident at a huge oil storage depot in a neighbouring country, oil spilled into a major international river, creating a risk to five countries downstream. Ana’s country will be the first polluted by the oil slick. Significant threats to water-supply systems, agriculture, and the ecosystem require urgent regional action.
The storyline combines elements of routine and crisis diplomacy. The crisis elements bring some tacit and discrete forms of diplomacy into sharper focus. Crises often trigger retrospection and reform, in which the trappings of day-to-day routine and inertia are displaced, and real-life problems and issues come to the fore.
The left column in the paper (the yellow boxes) contains comments on each story episode. The comments reflect on technological aspects, changes in diplomacy, and the need for management reform. Each story episode is introduced by one drawing illustrating Ana’s diplomatic activity. All episode drawing are integrated into the poster “A Day in the Life of an E-Diplomat” (see above).
