How can you check if AI will endanger your job?

You can detect if your job is at risk from AI automation by answering the following three questions:

If the answer to the above three questions is ‘yes’, you should start developing new skills and preparing for the AI transformation.

What about the future of diplomacy in the AI era?

In this text, I apply these three questions to discuss the future of the diplomatic profession. Diplomacy has always been deeply human, requiring interpersonal skills and cultural understanding. However, over the last few decades, diplomats have become increasingly bogged down sitting behind the screen and performing administrative tasks, often at the expense of more strategic engagements. This shift has been driven by a ‘compliance tsunami,’ with diplomats spending countless hours preparing reports and ensuring compliance with international bureaucracy requirements. AI offers a chance to reverse this trend, shifting the focus back to real diplomacy.

1. The screen time factor

Diplomats, especially those in junior positions, spend significant time writing reports and managing data at computers. They report in two directions: back towards the capital and up towards international organisations. Internal reporting is essential for the functioning of diplomatic systems, as evidenced by the importance of diplomatic cables revealed through platforms like Wikileaks. AI can streamline this process, allowing diplomats to add context-specific nuances that require human insight. Even a higher level of AI automation would be possible for reporting towards various treaty bodies and implementation mechanisms such as SDGs as they rely on building narratives around policies and available data.

2. The logic pattern test

Many procedural aspects of diplomacy are ripe for AI automation. Consular protection, for example, involves a series of procedures related to passports and identity verification. While AI can handle these routine tasks, it cannot replace the human touch required when visiting an arrested citizen. Similarly, international meetings follow procedures AI can manage, but the core of negotiations—finding a compromise—remains a deeply human endeavour. Negotiations involve logical calculations, emotional engagement, and building trust.

3. The text-centric challenge

AI will profoundly impact the text-intensive nature of diplomacy. Diplomats have long been masters of language, as demonstrated by the eight diplomats who have won Nobel Prizes for literature. AI, through large language models, will take over many aspects of diplomatic writing, from drafting emails to complex policy reports. This will free diplomats to focus on personal contacts and strategic thinking.

In conclusion, diplomacy does well on three criteria for future jobs in the AI era. Moreover, by reducing administrative burdens, automating routine procedures, and assisting with text-heavy tasks, AI can enable diplomats to return to their core mission: representing the interests of their citizens and resolving conflicts through negotiation. For diplomacy, AI is not a threat but an enabler for moving from bureaucratic to real diplomacy.