Unlocking the future: The art and science of forecasting

Forecasting allows us to do just that—imagining what lies ahead and preparing for what’s to come. For over a decade, we’ve been at the forefront of predicting digital policy trends, offering annual insights for 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024.

But how do we do it? Our foresight methodology is a carefully crafted blend of expertise, innovation, and collaboration. Over the years, it has evolved into a dynamic process built around six key elements:

1. Expert knowledge: The pulse of digital policy

Our team of experts doesn’t just observe digital developments—they live them. As researchers, educators, and active participants in global policy processes like WSIS, IGF, and OEWG, they bring unparalleled depth to our forecasts.

2. The wisdom of the crowd: Insights from a global network

Some of the most valuable perspectives come from Diplo’s vibrant community—lecturers, students, and alumni. These individuals strike the perfect balance: close enough to understand the nuances of digital policy, yet far enough to avoid tunnel vision.

3. Digital Watch Observatory: Continuous trend-analysis

Stay ahead with Digital Watch Observatory, your go-to source for real-time updates on AI and digital developments. In 2024 alone, we’ve delivered 4,560 just-in-time updates, alongside weekly summaries and monthly newsletters. It’s the ultimate tool for spotting trends and tracking their evolution throughout the year.

4. AI and data analysis: Spotting patterns in a lot of data

AI significantly transforms the field of forecasting. By analysing vast datasets—from social media chatter to academic research—AI helps us identify patterns and trends across short-term, medium-term, and long-term horizons.

5. Traditional foresight methodologies: Time-tested tools

We also rely on proven techniques like the Delphi method, which refines expert opinions through iterative questionnaires, and cross-impact analysis, which explores the interplay between trends and events. Add scenario planning to the mix, and you’ve got a toolkit for crafting plausible future scenarios.

6. Continuous improvement: Forecast improvements through feedback

Our approach is designed to evolve. Built-in feedback loops allow us to revisit and refine our forecasts at the end of each year, ensuring our techniques stay sharp and relevant.

Want to stay in the loop?
Let us know if you’d like to receive updates on our forecasting methodologies. The future is waiting—let’s explore it together!